class: title-slide, right, top background-image: url(img/hex-xaringan.png), url(img/GTLCColterBay-1920x1280.jpg) background-position: 90% 75%, 75% 75% background-size: 8%, cover <!-- --> .right-column[ # Jackson Lake level Preliminary Assesment ### **Daniel Hintz, Simon Weller, Ted Owen**<br> April 25, 2023 ] .palegrey[.left[.footnote[Photo by [GrandTetonLodgeCo](https://jacksonhole-traveler-production.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GTLCColterBay-1920x1280.jpg)]]] --- <div class="logo"></div> # Outline - Colter Bay Marina -- - Daily, Monthly and Yearly lags for Lake Level -- - Objectives -- - Short Term -- - Long term -- - System Drivers -- - Missing Information? --- <div class="logo"></div> # Colter Bay Marina .panelset[ .panel[.panel-name[Colterbay] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/colterbay_far.PNG" style="width: 50%; height: auto;" /> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[Colterbay Ramp] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/colterbay_close.PNG" style="width: 60%; height: auto;" /> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[Ramp Diagram] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/ramp_diagram.PNG" style="width: 60%; height: auto;" /> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[Level] <div id="htmlwidget_container" class="plotly html-widget" style="position: relative; width: 700px; height: 500px;">
</div> ] ] --- <div class="logo"></div> # Daily Lag <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/daily_lv_lag.PNG" style="width: 600px; height: 525px;" /> </div> --- <div class="logo"></div> # Monthly Lag <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/monthly_lv_lag.PNG" style="width: 600px; height: 525px;" /> </div> --- <div class="logo"></div> # Yearly Lag <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/yearly_lv_lag.PNG" style="width: 600px; height: 525px;" /> </div> --- <div class="logo"></div> # Objectives - Are we trying to nail prediction on a fine resolution? -- - Are we trying to be able to alert boaters months in advance if we think its going to be a good boating season. -- - Or, ... -- - Are we trying to capture the long term viability of the ramp, monthly point estimates are not so important. Trending up or Down? -- - Or both! --- <div class="logo"></div> # Short Term <div id="htmlwidget_container" class="plotly html-widget" style="position: relative; width: 700px; height: 500px;">
</div> --- <div class="logo"></div> # Short Term with Moran Predictor <div id="htmlwidget_container" class="plotly html-widget" style="position: relative; width: 700px; height: 500px;">
</div> --- <div class="logo"></div> # Short Term with Moran Predictor <!-- --> --- <div class="logo"></div> # Long term .panelset[ .panel[.panel-name[Sub-Series] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/Level_subseries.png" style="width: 70%; height: auto;" /> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[ARIMA] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/ARIMA_30y_noCov.PNG" style="width: 70%; height: auto;" /> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[SNAIVE] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/SNAIVE_30y.PNG" style="width: 70%; height: auto;" /> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[SNAIVE Sub-Series] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/SNAIVE_subseries.PNG" style="width: 70%; height: 400px;" /> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[ARIMA Sub-Series] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/ARIMA_subseries.PNG" style="width: 70%; height: 400px;" /> </div> ] ] <!-- text immediately below ??? is present note accessible from presenter mode from hitting P--> ??? - Why am I showing you forecasts that are clearly bad? - Because we need covariates that capture information that allows for drift and non-stationary in our forecasts - So what might they those covariates/variables be? - For that we might need your insights <!-- there is no symbol to end presenter comments--> --- <div class="logo"></div> # System Drivers .panelset[ .panel[.panel-name[Predictors] - So far, we have looked at: - Deficit - Outflow ] .panel[.panel-name[Deficit vs Outflow] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/deficit_vs_outflow.jpg" style="width: 70%; height: auto;" /> </div> ] .panel[.panel-name[Level] <div id="htmlwidget_container" class="plotly html-widget" style="position: relative; width: 700px; height: 500px;">
</div> ] .panel[.panel-name[ARIMA] <div style="text-align: center;"> <img src="img/ARIMA_30y_noCov.PNG" style="width: 70%; height: auto;" /> </div> ] ] --- # Missing Information? .pull-left[ <div style="text-align: center;"> <h2 style="font-size: 16px;">Wyoming Drought Index</h2> <img src="img/drought_index.PNG" style="width: 600px; height: 500px;" /> </div> ] .pull-right[ <div id="htmlwidget_container" class="plotly html-widget" style="position: relative; width: 700px; height: 500px;">
</div> ] --- class: center, middle # Thank You